Category Archives: Latest Research

East Antarctic Ice Sheet Vulnerable to Melting Within Paris 2°C Goal

Nature, July 22 Large sections of the massive Wilkes Basin ice sheet of East Antarctica, holding 3-4 meters of SLR collapsed only 400,000 years ago, retreating over 700 km inland from the current ice margin – dispelling theories that it had been stable for millions of years. This glacial retreat, measured through traces of uranium-234 in […]

Climate Sensitivity to CO2 Emissions: More Accurate and Higher Level

AGU, July 21, 2020 Earth’s global “climate sensitivity” to CO2 emissions remains a fundamental question in predicting the future climate.  Until now, scientists relied on a 1979 estimate of 1.5‐4.5°C per doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (assuming no other climate forcing).  For the first time in 40 years, this consensus report – part of preparation […]

Global Methane Emissions Reach ‘Record High’ Levels

Global Methane Budget, 2000-2017 (2020), July 15, 2020. A new consensus update to global methane emissions reveals that atmospheric methane increased by 8.5ppb and 10.7ppb in 2018 and 2019, respectively – two of the highest annual values of the 21st century. The current concentration of atmospheric methane is more than 2.5 times higher than pre-industrial […]

World Temperatures Projected to Reach 1.5°C by 2024

Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, WMO, July 9, 2020. A new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) finds a ~70% chance that global mean temperature will rise 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one month within the next 5 years. This projection does not necessarily mean that the 1.5°C limit will have […]

Climate Analogs & Cryosphere

PNAS December 10: Models Show Abrupt Transition of Climate to Past Geologic States Main Messages: Already in 2030, Earth’s climate will approach that of the mid-Pliocene (-3 million years) if current emissions levels continue unabated, eg RCP8.5 through 2030. Pliocene (–3 million), temps 2.8°-4.6° above pre-industrial, with 20+ m. SLR If emissions continue on an […]