AMOC May Weaken by Around 50% This Century with Even “Moderate” Emissions

Science Advances, 15 April 2026

Climate projections that incorporate real-world ocean observations indicate that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken by 42-58% by 2100 with low to moderate emissions (SSP2-4.5), a much stronger decline than the ~32% weakening projected by the standard average across climate models. By comparing models with observed ocean conditions, the study identifies simulations that better represent key factors controlling the AMOC, reducing projection uncertainty. Stronger slowdown emerges after correcting model biases in South Atlantic surface salinity and related ocean density patterns, both of which influence the stability of circulation. An AMOC weakening of this magnitude could significantly affect regional climate patterns, with implications for long-term climate risk and adaptation planning across Europe, Africa, and the Americas.

Paper | News Coverage by The Guardian