Climate Models Likely Underestimate Future Arctic Ocean Warming and Sea Ice Loss

Journal of Climate, 15 March 2023

This study compared projected Arctic ocean temperatures from the most recent IPCC climate models with actual observations from the Arctic Ocean; and found that models consistently underestimated ocean temperatures and the degree of warming. It concluded that future Arctic warming and especially, sea ice loss will proceed much faster than even the newest models predict. Deep Atlantic currents flowing through the Fram Strait proved much warmer, stronger, and closer to the surface than previously expected, increasing the amount of heat meeting the edges of Arctic sea ice. Authors found that, because current IPCC climate models do not sufficiently account for these warm deep waters increasing the rate of sea ice loss, particularly in winter months; they severely underestimate the consequences of climate change on Arctic ecosystems. Last year, a similar study found that the Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average, and twice as fast as the modeling used by the IPCC. This intricate relationship between deep ocean layers and Arctic sea ice underscores the need for climate models that are tailored to the Arctic, as opposed to application there of planet-wide models; to better capture the consequences of climate change in the Arctic and resulting planet-wide feedbacks.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/8/JCLI-D-22-0194.1.xml