Different Regions of Antarctica Have Distinct Tipping Points for Irreversible Ice Loss

Nature Climate Change, 16 February 2026

The Antarctic Ice Sheet does not respond to warming as a single system, but rather many separate regions or drainage basins — each with its own “tipping point” (risk of long-term ice loss). Some basins would lose ice gradually as temperatures rise, while others reach thresholds where large amounts of ice eventually collapse after a specific level of warming occurs. Temperatures as low as 1-2°C above pre-industrial levels – a range well within today’s 1.3°C – could trigger the long-term collapse of about 40% of West Antarctica’s ice basins, committing roughly 2 meters of sea-level rise. In East Antarctica, large regions might become unstable at only slightly higher warming levels, with 2-5°C of warming at risk of contributing up to 5 meters; and warming beyond 6°C committing more than 26 meters. One of the most vulnerable regions is West Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea Embayment, which could lose about 70% of its ice volume after crossing its threshold, contributing roughly 1 meter of sea-level rise. This shows that parts of West Antarctica may already be close to, or past, critical thresholds at current warming levels, where rapid and irreversible ice loss triggered in coming years or decades would continue for centuries into the future, even if temperatures later stabilize.

Paper | Press Release