Economic Loss from Alaskan Permafrost Thaw, Infrastructure Damage: Double Past Estimates

Nature Communications, 21 March 2025

New models refining infrastructure mapping in Alaska show that large economic losses are expected to emerge from permafrost thaw in coming decades. The improved analysis reveals that permafrost-related damage to Alaskan buildings and roads could cost $37 billion by mid-century under a medium emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and $51 billion under high emissions (SSP5-8.5); these latest cost estimates are two times higher than previously estimated. Rising temperatures destabilize infrastructure foundations built on permafrost, increase ground subsidence, and reduce the ability of thawing sediments and soils to support infrastructure. The study helps quantify the loss and damage that more than 5 million Alaskans living across 1162 settlements face, and underscores the urgency of strengthened mitigation commitments on an international scale.

Full paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02191-7
News Coverage from the University of Connecticut: https://phys.org/news/2025-03-clearer-permafrost-alaska.html