Extensive Glacier Loss in Himalayas Locked In Even Without Further Warming

Nature Communications, May 17

Glaciers in the greater Himalayan region (sometimes called High Mountain Asia) are the most vulnerable worldwide to climatic, societal and environmental changes. This study investigates the health of 5527 glaciers in the region for 2000-2016. Findings show that even in a fictional scenario without additional warming, these glaciers would lose 23% of their volume by 2100, and 34% by 2200. These estimates are only slightly lower than recent projections of 29% to 36% mass loss by 2100 under the optimistic low emissions (RCP2.6) scenario, suggesting that much loss from Himalayan glaciers is already locked in at today’s rates of warming. The loss of ice will cause a decline in meltwater runoff of around 28% by 2100, jeopardizing the water supplies of at least 250 million people directly, and over 2 billion indirectly in the region. Authors point out that their estimates most likely are optimistic at best since CO2 emissions and warming will continue past today. Deglaciation of the region will therefore increase, impacting ecosystems and human societies even further.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23073-4