Following a High Emissions Pathway Could Double Antarctic Freshwater Release into the Ocean by 2100

Geophysical Research Letters, 8 December 2024

Melting Antarctic ice releases freshwater into the Southern Ocean, with profound impacts on regional and global climate systems, as well as sea-level rise. A new study projects how the amount of freshwater released into the ocean through ice shelf subsurface melting, iceberg calving, and surface meltwater runoff will change through to the year 2300. Results show that following a low emissions pathway can limit changes in the amount and nature of freshwater discharge from Antarctica in coming centuries. Under a very-high emissions scenario, however, the amount of freshwater discharged from Antarctica could double by 2100, and quadruple by 2300, risking the triggering of severe and unpredictable feedbacks within global climate and ocean current systems.

Full paper: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL111250