Future Glacier Lakes Could Reshape Mountain Landscapes, Increase Flood Risks

Nature Communications, 2 May 2026

Scientists reconstructed the terrain beneath more than 200,000 glaciers worldwide using satellite observations, ice thickness measurements, and advanced glacier modeling, finding that over 50,000 new lakes could emerge as glaciers retreat. Together, these future lakes would store about 3,100 cubic kilometers of water – equivalent to roughly 7 millimeters of sea-level rise. Large potential lakes near glacier fronts in High Mountain Asia were identified as a key concern because they would increase the risk of glacier lake outburst floods, where water suddenly escapes from lakes dammed by ice or rock. Beyond locating hazards, these new global maps provide one of the most detailed reconstructions to-date of glacier-covered landscapes. This could help communities better predict glacier retreat, prepare for flood hazards, manage water resources and navigate changing mountain landscapes as the climate warms.

The study also estimated that Earth’s remaining glaciers, including those in polar regions (but not the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets) currently contain enough ice to raise global sea levels by about 0.3 meters if fully melted.

Paper