Global Emissions Dictate Rate of Unavoidable Sea Level Rise from Major West Antarctic Glaciers

The Cryosphere, 3 June 2024

A new model incorporating the latest ice-ocean interactions projects that future stability of West Antarctica’s massive Thwaites Glacier relies on small “pinning points” where it rests on the bedrock. The speed at which increasingly warm ocean waters erode these pinning points will play an important role in determining the future pace of sea level rise from this region of Antarctica. Authors confirm that today’s temperatures have already locked in erosion of many such pinning points, and therefore a certain level of committed sea level rise from Thwaites over coming centuries, suggesting that it may recently have crossed a stability threshold. They warn that every additional increment of warming will greatly increase both the rate and amount of sea level rise from this vulnerable region. Thwaites alone currently contributes 4% of global sea level rise. Its rate of ice loss has doubled in the last three decades, warning of even more extreme loss if fossil fuel emissions continue unabated.

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/2653/2024