Greenland Meltwater Increases Future AMOC Weakening

Science Advances, 19 June 2026

Including estimates of Greenland Ice Sheet melt in climate models increases the projected weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) by up to 40% by 2300 under a high-emissions scenario. Most models already project some level of AMOC slowdown with continued fossil fuel emissions and planetary warming. However, most climate models do not account for increasing freshwater input from Greenland’s ice loss due to that same warming. Using latest climate models, this study found that Greenland meltwater has a relatively small effect before 2100, but as Greenland melt accelerates in the next century, growing freshwater input from that melt increasingly weakens the AMOC. Such additional meltwater did not however trigger an abrupt or irreversible AMOC collapse in this model. The findings highlight the importance of including realistic ice sheet behavior and meltwater in future climate projections, as well as reinforce the need to limit emissions to slow Greenland ice loss and reduce the risk of damage to this critical ocean circulation system.

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