High Emissions Scenarios Could Double Ice-Free Freshwater Lakes by 2100

Geophysical Research Letters, August 14

Since the 1970s, freshwater lakes in the Northern Hemisphere have been three times more likely to experience entirely ice-free winters, never freezing at all. Drawing less attention than Arctic sea ice loss, this shift – driven by warmer winters — carries major ecological, socio-economic, and cultural consequences. Projections show that these ice-free lake conditions will become more frequent in coming decades under all emissions scenarios. Keeping temperatures below two degrees will however stabilize the number of ice-free lakes after 2050.  With high emissions, they will double by 2100.  Outdoor ice sports will continue to decline; and in some northern countries, particularly indigenous communities have documented an increase also in deaths in ice-related accidents, especially in springtime when previously reliable ice has disintegrated unexpectedly early.  Authors urge rapid mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the number of lakes losing all seasonal ice cover.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL089608

Compiled by Amy Imdieke.