Improved Models of Subglacial Water Show Potential Tripling of Antarctic Ice Loss by 2300

Nature, 7 April 2025

Subglacial water may play a much larger role in Antarctic ice loss than previously thought, and this study suggests that current models may underestimate future sea-level rise by a factor of three. Vast networks of lakes and streams lie beneath the Antarctic ice sheet. This water can lubricate the ice, allowing it to slide more rapidly toward the ocean. Incorporating the latest understanding of subglacial water processes into projections can increase ice loss threefold, potentially contributing an additional 2.2 meters to global sea-level rise by 2300. The study highlights the importance of accurately modeling subglacial water given its key role in moderating ice sheet flow and increasing melt and related sea-level rise, which could lead to trillions of dollars in earlier and greater economic damage, inundating coastlines and displacing millions of people in coming centuries.

Full Paper from Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-58375-4
Plain-language summary by authors: https://theconversation.com/antarcticas-hidden-threat-meltwater-under-the-ice-sheet-amplifies-sea-level-rise-250780