Intense Ocean Warming, Even If Temporary, Could Trigger Major Antarctic Ice Loss

The Cryosphere, 7 April 2026

Projections of Antarctica’s response to temporary but extreme ocean warming find that 14 major ice streams across West and East Antarctica would continue to retreat for centuries, even after temperatures return to present-day levels. Using an ocean-ice sheet model, researchers examined what would happen if Antarctic continental shelf waters warmed to a point that all ice shelf cavities entered a warm regime, similar to high-end future climate conditions. Their models found this level of warming would increase melting below ice shelves and drive widespread ice sheet retreat. When the warming is removed, ocean temperatures could recover to lower temperatures within a few decades. However, 14 major ice streams – many located in the Ross, Amundsen, Filchner–Ronne, and Dronning Maud Land basins – would continue to retreat for centuries even after temperatures return to present-day levels, demonstrating effectively irreversible ice loss.

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