New Modeling Strengthens Concerns About Future Sea-level Rise from Antarctica

The Cryosphere, 24 April 2025

Scientists have developed a statistical technique to predict how snowfall and surface melting will influence the stability of Antarctic ice shelves under different emissions scenarios. They found that while most ice shelves remain safe from meltwater-driven fracturing under low emissions (SSP1-2.6), nearly all could become prone to hydrofracturing by 2150 under very high emissions (SSP5-8.5). Increased surface runoff poses a major threat to Antarctic ice shelves, hindering and even inhibiting their ability to restrain larger sections of the ice sheet from sliding faster into the ocean, with earlier and faster sea-level rise a result.

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