Only Low Emissions Scenarios Slow Growth in Antarctic Surface Melt

Nature Communications, 30 March 2026

Surface melting in Antarctica is projected to increase this century, with the area experiencing surface melt expanding by more than 10% by 2100 under high emissions. Only low emissions scenarios will keep the spread of surface melting from increasing beyond present levels. Surface melting alters how much solar heat the ice absorbs, drives greater meltwater pooling and drainage through the ice, and contributes to faster ice loss and sea-level rise. It also poses a serious risk to ice shelves, especially in the West Antarctic Peninsula and Amundsen Sea Embayment, where increased surface water can promote hydrofracturing and structural weakening of the ice. Looking beyond 2100, the differences between emission scenarios grow more pronounced, with major implications for long-term ice sheet stability and resulting sea-level rise.

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