Past Arctic Warming Reveals Greenland Ice Vulnerability at Low Temperature Thresholds

Nature Geoscience, 24 November 2025

The Prudhoe Dome ice cap in northern Greenland completely melted 7,000 years ago and was ice-free until a few thousand years ago, indicating that parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet disappeared when global mean temperatures were actually cooler than today (about 0.3°C cooler than the 2011-19 average, according to IPCC AR6). However, parts of the Arctic were much warmer than the global average, with this part of Greenland perhaps 3-5°C warmer than today, especially in summer months. These same temperatures will likely occur again in the Arctic by 2100 unless strong emissions reductions take place. The discovery that this 500-meter thick ice cap spanning 2,500 km2 vanished at relatively lower temperatures raises the alarm that similar loss could occur in the near future, since the Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average. This study indicates that the Greenland ice sheet is highly sensitive to relatively small increases in temperature.

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