Past, Present and Future of Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt

Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 17 June 2026

This review paper summarizes long-term changes in Greenland ice sheet surface melt from 1500-2200, showing that surface melt has increased rapidly by around 1% per year since the 1990s, driven by regional warming and changes in atmospheric circulation. Since 1992, the Greenland Ice Sheet has already contributed about 1.3 cm to global mean sea level. Even in the absence of further warming, it is committed to an additional 25 cm of sea-level rise, while complete loss of the ice sheet would ultimately raise global sea level by 7.4 m. The study highlights a recent rise in extreme melt behavior, with several unprecedented multi-day melt events observed since 2007. The July 2012 event stands out as the most extensive in the satellite record, with near Greenland-wide surface melt. These extremes, together with a lengthening melt season and more frequent melt outside the summer period, indicate a shift toward more widespread and persistent surface melting. As Arctic warming continues, factors such as increasing rainfall and more frequent year-round melt are expected to add further complexity, leading to greater unpredictability and more extreme variability in Greenland’s future ice loss and contribution to sea-level rise.

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