Permafrost Thaw Increases Risk and Large Future Costs of Infrastructure on the Third Pole

Communications Earth & Environment, 13 October 2022

Limiting warming below 1.5°C instead of 2°C could reduce the costs of infrastructure damage from permafrost thaw in the Tibetan Plateau by $1.32 billion before the end of the century. Over the past several decades, the Tibetan Plateau has warmed two times faster than the global average, increasing the vulnerability of its frozen grounds to thawing, sinking, and collapse. Permafrost thaw poses the greatest threat to infrastructure in cold regions. Under a moderate emissions scenario, nearly two-thirds of the permafrost area in the Tibetan Plateau will be considered a “high-hazard” zone within the next seven decades. More than $6 billion USD would be needed to maintain the service functions of major roads, railways, powerlines, and buildings in this area. The implementation of adaption strategies could lower this cost by $1 billion dollars. Hundreds of millions of people directly rely on this vulnerable infrastructure for food security, energy, education, culture, and health care. Authors underscore the importance of reducing emissions to curb global temperature rise within the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement and thereby enhance social equality and resilience.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00568-6