NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science, 27 February 2025
The “El Niño Southern Oscillation”, or ENSO, is known to influence variability in sea ice. This study investigates the linear and nonlinear data trends of ENSO’s impact on Antarctic sea ice predictability. Findings reveal that ENSO’s influence on sea ice extent is not uniform, displaying both predictable linear relationships and complex, nonlinear functions. Understanding these nonlinear dynamics is crucial for improving climate models and predicting future sea ice behavior, which in turn impacts regional and global climate patterns. These insights highlight the utility of modeling techniques that account for both linear and nonlinear ENSO-sea ice interactions to better inform policy decisions related to climate change adaptation.
Full paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-025-00962-9
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