Sea-level Rise and Permafrost Thaw Substantially Increases Arctic Coastal Erosion Rates

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 3 December 2024

Climate change is affecting Arctic shoreline sea-level rise and permafrost thaw, as storms intensify and coastal sea ice thins. Coastal erosion is an increasing Arctic hazard as a result, yet the combined impact of sea-level rise and permafrost thaw subsidence on future Arctic coastal erosion has been difficult to assess. In this new study, scientists project how sea-level rise and permafrost thaw combined will affect Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain over the coming century. They found that the combined effect will lead to up to 8x more land lost by 2100 than in models that only account for coastal erosion. Without strong adaptation measures, the authors show that coastal losses could damage 40-65% of infrastructure in villages along the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain, including 10-20% of oilfield infrastructure, by 2100.

Full paper: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2409411121
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution coverage: https://www.whoi.edu/press-room/news-release/coastal-retreat-in-alaska-is-accelerating-because-of-compound-climate-impacts/