Shifting Cyclones May Reduce Antarctica’s Natural Snowfall Buffer Against Ice Loss

Advances in Climate Change Research, June 2026

Extratropical cyclones – large weather systems that transport heat and moisture toward Antarctica – play an important role in the addition and loss of ice on the Antarctic Ice Sheet. This study used climate simulations to examine how warming and changes in Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation affect cyclone behavior and the ice sheet’s mass balance (loss of ice versus ice sheet build-up from snowfall). The researchers found that as temperatures rise, cyclones shift toward the poles, increasing the amount of precipitation they deliver to Antarctica. Initially, this can help offset ice loss because the additional precipitation falls mainly as snow, adding mass to the ice sheet. However, as warming continues and the ice sheet surface lowers, cyclones increasingly bring warmer air and precipitation that falls as rain, increasing surface runoff and reducing this protective effect. These findings highlight that changes in cyclone patterns, precipitation type, and surface melting processes are important factors for understanding Antarctica’s future contribution to sea-level rise. Accounting for evolving atmospheric circulation and storm behavior can provide additional insights for decision-makers developing long-term sea-level rise projections and adaptation strategies.

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