Significant Increase in Global Warming Rate Since 2015, Even with Natural Variability

AGU Geophysical Research Letters, 6 March 2026

This study found a statistically significant increase in the rate of warming since 2015, even after accounting for natural sources of temperature variability such as El Niño events, volcanic eruptions, and solar variation. Adjusting for these factors reduced short-term variability in the temperature record and revealed that the increase in warming over the past decade was higher than during any previous decade since records began in the 1880s. All major global temperature datasets examined in this study show the same pattern of faster warming over the past decade, with the estimated warming rate around 0.35°C, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade on average from 1970-2015.

Paper | Summary by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | News Coverage by The Guardian