Arctic Warming Accelerates Global Temperature Rise Towards Critical 1.5°C Threshold

Journal of Earth System Dynamics, 14 November 2023

The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the global average rate. A new study has quantified the impact of this faster warming on how quickly the Paris Agreement’s global temperature limits of 1.5°C and 2°C are likely to be breached. Scientists analyzed data from climate models that contributed to the most recent IPCC assessment report, AR6. They found that under a moderate carbon emissions scenario, the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C and 2°C limits will be breached five and eight years earlier, respectively, than in a fictitious world where the Arctic only warmed at the global average rate. In addition to amplifying warming, their study shows that the Arctic contributes a disproportionate amount of uncertainty to climate forecasts: the Arctic region accounts for 15% of uncertainty in projections, despite making up only 4% of global surface area, often resulting in underestimation of the pace of change in Earth’s “global refrigerator.”

https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/1165/2023/