East Antarctic Ice Shelf Melt Driven by Warm Surface Ocean Waters

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 26 June 2026

East Antarctica has long been considered less vulnerable to ocean-driven ice loss than West Antarctica, but latest research shows that some of its ice shelves are highly exposed to warming surface waters. Using a high-resolution model, this study examined the Denman-Shackleton ice shelf, where much of the ice shelf base lies relatively close to the ocean surface, making it especially vulnerable to ocean warming. The study finds that most melting beneath this ice shelf is caused by warm surface waters rather than warmer deep ocean waters, which drive melting in many other parts of Antarctica. Melting peaks between January and May, when reduced sea ice allows the ocean surface to warm and winds redirect it beneath the ice shelf. The model estimates that the Denman-Shackleton ice shelf produces around 35 gigatons of meltwater each year, with most of this resulting from these shallow, surface-driven interactions between the atmosphere and ocean. As Antarctic sea ice continues to decline, these processes are expected to deliver more warm surface water beneath these ice shelves, increasing shelf break-up; and thereby potentially increasing ice loss and sea-level rise from these East Antarctic regions, since ice shelves buttress the ice sheet and slow the flow of ice into the ocean.

Papper | News Coverage by the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership