One-Third of European Alps Glacier Ice Now Committed to Disappear Before 2050

Geophysical Research Letters, 1 December 2023

This study finds that the prognosis for glaciers in the European Alps is worse than previously thought, with one-third of present-day glacier ice committed to be lost by 2050, even were global emissions completely halted today. Researchers identify this level of ice loss as the “absolute minimum” – a theoretical scenario used to illustrate what is already locked into today’s ice. If glacier loss however continues the same trend observed over the past two decades, nearly half of current glacier ice in the Alps will disappear by 2050; and this loss rises to two-thirds if glaciers follow the same pattern set by the past decade alone, when loss accelerated. Researchers warn that even the largest Alpine glaciers at high altitudes will retreat multiple kilometers over the next three decades, even under a very low emissions scenario; and every tenth of a degree of temperature rise above today’s will commit the Alps to lose even more ice, and at a faster rate. The study makes clear that the next few years are critical in determining what the future will hold, particularly for water resources and ecosystems reliant on European Alpine glaciers.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105029