Widespread Destabilization of Arctic Infrastructure as Permafrost Thaw Increases

The Cryosphere, May 31

The presence of infrastructure built on permafrost ground in the Arctic causes increased snow accumulation, and then ponding and standing water when the snow melts. This increases regional soil temperatures, deepening permafrost thaw; and puts infrastructure at risk of failure. Under strong future warming and high-emission scenarios, gravel roads such as the Dalton Highway in Alaska will cause greater amounts of heat to enter the ground, accelerating permafrost thaw underneath. In particular, although top-down thawing will weaken the center of the road, formation of talik – a superficial layer of year-round unfrozen ground – along the sides will ultimately destabilize the road to the point that it becomes unusable within 30 years. The transition of permafrost thaw from gradual to accelerated, irreversible thaw therefore occurs more quickly in ground covered by infrastructure than undisturbed tundra. According to AMAP’s latest Climate Update, more than 66% of Arctic settlements are located on permafrost and, in Alaska, permafrost thaw will increase cumulative maintenance costs of public infrastructure by an estimated 10% (US $5.5 billion) by 2100.

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/2451/2021/