Nature Communications, 17 December 2022<\/p>\n
Rising temperatures in the Arctic are overwhelming the ability of sea ice to regrow in winter, which suggests that ice production is currently passing a peak and will dramatically decrease under further climate warming. The Kara and Laptev seas are sometimes referred to as Arctic \u201cice factories\u201d due to their essential role in winter sea ice formation. In these waters, sea ice can rapidly form between floating ice packs as they drift northwards. Sea ice melt during the summer decreases the thickness of ice, reduces the amount of snow insulating its surface, and breaks it apart. These factors paradoxically have accelerated sea ice growth during the winter, although summer ice loss still has outpaced winter formation for more than four decades. Continued Arctic warming appears however to have pushed this delicate sea ice system across a threshold: in 2020, the Kara and Laptev seas warmed to a point that crippled winter sea ice formation, placing it further behind the pace of summer ice loss. These \u201cice factories\u201d are now projected to produce less sea ice each year as temperatures continue to rise. Crossing this threshold also increases the vulnerability of sea ice to extreme melt by exposing more of the ocean to warm solar radiation, reducing its ability to recover. Authors underscore the importance of reducing emissions to slow the impact of warming on Arctic sea ice and cryosphere systems across the world, providing communities with the chance to adapt to these radically changing environments.<\/p>\n