Cryosphere Math: The Rule of Twos<\/p>\n
For the cryosphere, the 2011 UNEP\/WMO Integrated Assessment on Black Carbon and Trophosperic Ozone was a vitally important study. \u00a0Given the brief time I have here today \u2013 and perhaps because I have an 11-year-old who is suffering through fractions and multiplication right now — I am going to put this importance in terms of what I\u2019d call cryosphere math: mostly rules of doubles, and halves.<\/p>\n
The very general rule of thumb in the cryosphere, whether it is the Arctic or the Himalayas, is that temperature rises are occurring at double the rates elsewhere. \u00a0More dangerously for future generations like my daughter \u2013 who will be exactly my age today in 2050 \u2013 the now-agreed goal of a two-degree target does not mean two degrees in the Arctic and Himalayas, but more like four or even five.<\/p>\n
This is dangerously high.<\/p>\n
Two facts to illustrate this \u201cRule of Twos,\u201d of changes that have accompanied this rapid rise in temperature already. \u00a0First, land glacier mass decline in regions throughout the world. \u00a0There of course exists a fair amount of variability. \u00a0\u00a0Nevertheless, scientists see a broad downward trend globally \u2013 and in some places like North and South America, huge rates of loss of mass, or the total amount of ice, as well as receding length.<\/p>\n
The second indicator: \u00a0the very rapid decline in Arctic sea ice. \u00a02007 was the previous record, which may well be broken in 2012. \u00a0Yet what the very low rates in 2007 also did was move the mean: all years since then have been closer to the 2007 minimum than to the previous norm (which was still downwards). \u00a0Current forecasts are that we will see the first ice-free Arctic summer up there by 2030.<\/p>\n
Moving back to the math: \u00a0double the rates means in essence half the time to deal with the problem. \u00a0The whole time scale of climate change in the cryosphere is different, and so must our responses be.<\/p>\n
That brings us to the good news part of the UNEP Assessment, because what it tells us is that especially in these regions, the short-lived forcers black carbon, ozone and methane are half the problem \u2013 and therefore half the solution. \u00a0We can do something about this!<\/p>\n
There is however also good news in the cryosphere rule of twos, and it was illustrated by the 2011 UNEP\/WMO Integrated Assement of Black Carbon and Ozone. \u00a0The Assessment measures led to declining temperatures throughout the globe \u2013 but in the Arctic, it was bearly twice that of the global mean, 0.7 degrees versus 0.4 degrees. \u00a0This difference should hold for other cryosphere regions as well (and ICCI hopes to support work soon to examine this). \u00a0\u00a0But if the bad news is that the cryosphere is warming faster than the rest of the world, the good news is that its response to decreases in black carbon and methane is also faster.<\/p>\n
This is a huge result \u2013 the IPCC in its fourth Assessment (2007) forecast an additional rise of temperature in the Arctic of 1.2 degrees by 2050. \u00a0That rise will occur even with the aggressive CO2 measures, measures for which I need to make clear ICCI is also working, in the UNFCCC context. \u00a0But the chemistry of CO2 is such that even a peak in 2020 just won\u2019t decrease temperatures by any significant amount by that half-century mark. \u00a0The actions named in the Assessment on the other hand would decrease that projected warming in 2050 by almost two-thirds, 7\/10 of a degree.<\/p>\n
To deal with the parts of climate change affecting the globe between now and 2050, you really need to deal with the whole of the problem, not just halves: \u00a0aggressive reductions in CO2 and short-lived forcers both. \u00a0This is why ICCI is involved in everything from support for the prototype methane fund mentioned in the UNEP Action Plan, to campaigns on decreasing use of old woodstoves and agricultural burning in Arctic nations, to the Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves. \u00a0All these policy efforts are needful, if we are to preserve the cryosphere.<\/p>\n
Finally, I believe the Arctic nations have a special role in this effort. \u00a0They were the first to recognize the potential of short-lived forcers, with special leadership from Sweden, Norway and the United States. \u00a0Yet it is truly a global issue, and together with UNEP I hope that Arctic nations will continue to lead, as well as to support actions elsewhere. \u00a0This is not just for the benefit of the Arctic, but to demonstrate for the rest of the world what can be done to slow temperature rise: and on the cryosphere\u2019s \u201crule of two\u2019s\u201d time scale.<\/p>\n
Pam Pearson<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Cryosphere Math: The Rule of Twos Note: this is modified version of a statement given at the UNEP Governing Council meetings in Nairobi, Kenya ICCI works on behalf of the cryosphere \u2013 which means the parts of the earth that are covered by ice and snow. \u00a0The cryosphere mostly is used to mean the Arctic […]\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-433","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-okategoriserad"],"modified_by":"admin","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=433"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":435,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/433\/revisions\/435"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=433"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=433"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/sv\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=433"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}