Thawing Permafrost Directly Increases Wildfire Risk and Carbon Emissions

Nature Geoscience, 9 January 2026

As frozen permafrost thaws and the seasonally thawed layer deepens, summers become hotter and drier, vegetation and burnable soils increase, and wildfires grow larger and more intense across the Arctic and boreal (sub-Arctic) zones. Field observations paired with satellite data from 1997-2018 show that this thaw is a direct driver of drier conditions, higher fire danger, and fuel buildup. Satellite and ground data during this two-decade period show that this thaw is a direct driver of drier conditions and fuel buildup, leading to a 16.1% increase in the summer fire weather index. Permafrost thaw and wildfires therefore create a self-reinforcing cycle in which thaw promotes fires, fires release more carbon and further damage permafrost, and warming increases exponentially.

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