Two-Thirds of Native Antarctic Species At Risk of Extinction by 2100

PLOS Biology, 22 December 2022

In this study, scientists, conservation experts and policymakers from a dozen countries came together to propose ten key “threat management strategies” that can be implemented to benefit more than 80% of Antarctic organisms. This is the first comprehensive assessment of Antarctic conservation strategies that accounts for both benefit and overall cost-effectiveness to preserve local biodiversity. Antarctica contains many unique species specially adapted to survive in extreme conditions. As temperatures rise, ice loss accelerates and will render this environment inhospitable for many local species. Competition from flourishing invasive species will further strain vulnerable populations, posing a serious threat to future biodiversity. Authors identify emperor penguins as the Antarctic species at greatest risk of extinction. Under a high emissions scenario, more than three-fourths of emperor colonies will likely go extinct by 2100. Remaining within the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement, however, would reduce this loss to one-third. These findings underscore that the most beneficial conservation strategy (the first in their list of ten) is to influence global policy to limit global temperature rise. Implementing all ten threat management strategies is critical to the continued survival of local Antarctic species and securing Antarctic biodiversity for future generations.

https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3001921