Urgent Need to Include Permafrost and Wildfire Feedbacks in Global Carbon Budgets

PNAS, May 17

Today, carbon emissions (both CO2 and methane) from abrupt permafrost thaw and Arctic wildfires still are not fully included within global emissions budgets and modelling. Ignoring such feedbacks, which both directly result from rapid warming of the Arctic region, and intensify that warming further, causes governments to overestimate the remaining carbon budget. This in turn could make us exceed temperature targets, overshooting the limits of the Paris Agreement. Authors note the importance of scientists communicating the importance of such feedbacks to policy makers and the general public; as well as the need for more directed work to better include these additional climate feedbacks into future carbon budget models and Paris Agreement stocktaking processes.

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/21/e2100163118