Weakening Ocean Current Patterns Reduce Global Carbon Uptake, Costing Trillions of Dollars

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 12 January 2025

The AMOC is a large, intertwined system of ocean currents that transports heat throughout the Atlantic Ocean, playing a key role in the regulation of ocean temperatures and global climate patterns. By quantifying the AMOC’s impact on ocean carbon uptake, this study shows that a weaker AMOC would reduce the ocean’s ability to absorb CO2, thus resulting in higher levels of atmospheric CO2 and accelerated warming globally. This weakness could result in trillions of dollars in additional economic damage, including impacts from heatwaves, droughts, fiercer storms, additional infrastructure reinforcement, strain on food systems, and insurance costs. The culmination of changes is predicted to raise the ‘social cost’ of carbon by approximately 1%. Previously perceived economic “benefits” of AMOC-related cooling are thus disputed when global impacts are considered, demonstrating that overall AMOC weakening would result in a net cost to society.

Full paper: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2419543122
News coverage: https://www.earth.com/news/weakening-ocean-currents-could-cost-trillions-of-dollars/