Extreme Sea-Level Rise Could Lead to Large-Scale Coastal Relocation in the United Kingdom

Nature Communications, 21 July 2026

Rising sea levels driven by ocean warming and ice sheet melt are projected to substantially increase coastal flood risk across the United Kingdom, with implications for long-term adaptation and population relocation. Using high-resolution flood models and sea-level rise scenarios extending to 2300, the study found that, regardless of future emissions, around 500,000 additional people could be exposed to extreme coastal flooding by 2100 – a 25% increase compared with today. Under a high-emissions scenario that includes rapid ice sheet instability, sea level could rise by more than 16 meters by 2300, exposing an additional 13 million people to extreme flooding and placing much of today’s coastal infrastructure beyond the limits of existing flood defenses. The authors conclude that while flood protection will remain important, avoiding the most severe long-term impacts, including the need for large-scale relocation of coastal communities, depends on limiting greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Agreement.

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