Limiting Warming to 1.5°C Could Halve Glacier “Extinction” in Coming Decades

Nature Climate Change, 15 December 2025

Glacier loss is projected to rapidly increase this century, peaking between 2040 and 2055, when up to 2,000 glaciers per year could disappear even if warming is limited to 1.5°C. However, up to 4,000 glaciers per year could disappear under 4.0°C warming. This peak rate under high emissions is three to five times higher than today’s losses of roughly 750-800 glaciers annually. Globally, nearly 50% of today’s glaciers could still exist by 2100 under 1.5°C warming, compared to around only 20% under current policies (2.7°C), and fewer than 10% at 4.0°C. Many regions therefore face near-total loss under high emissions, including Central Europe, Western Canada and the U.S., with Central Asia also facing a steep decline. These findings highlight the importance of mitigation: limiting warming to 1.5°C could more than double the number of glaciers surviving by 2100 compared with 2.7°C and prevent the near-complete loss expected under 4.0°C warming.

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