持续高排放恐致欧洲最大冰盖大幅消融

The Cryosphere, 18 November 2025

Jostedalsbreen, the largest ice cap on mainland Europe, is projected to lose two-thirds of its current volume by 2100 under high emissions (SSP5-8.5), but this could be curbed to around 50% under medium emissions (SSP2-4.5). However, even with low emissions, this ice cap will probably split into three smaller ice fields during the second half of this century. Although Jostedalsbreen is more resilient than many smaller Scandinavian glaciers, it is still likely committed to near-complete loss after 2100, especially under continued high emissions. This is because surface melting and thinning lowers the ice’s surface to warmer elevations, leading to further melt in a negative feedback loop that makes eventual total loss inevitable. Jostedalsbreen is highly sensitive to greenhouse gas emissions and precipitation changes, making emission reductions critical for limiting long-term, irreversible ice loss.

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