{"id":4544,"date":"2023-03-24T18:03:53","date_gmt":"2023-03-24T18:03:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/?p=4544"},"modified":"2023-03-27T16:08:29","modified_gmt":"2023-03-27T16:08:29","slug":"key-cryosphere-messages-from-the-ipcc-ar6-synthesis-report-climate-change-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/key-cryosphere-messages-from-the-ipcc-ar6-synthesis-report-climate-change-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"IPCC AR6 \u7efc\u5408\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u7684\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u5173\u952e\u4fe1\u606f\uff1a2023 \u5e74\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u6458\u8981\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/syr\/<\/a><\/p>\n

\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08IPCC\uff09\u4e8e2023\u5e743\u670820\u65e5\u6279\u51c6\u4e86\u7b2c\u516d\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\uff08AR6\uff09\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u2014\u2014\u201c\u7efc\u5408\u62a5\u544a\u201d\uff0c\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u6c47\u96c6\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u9876\u5c16\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\uff0c\u5bf9\u5f53\u524d\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5168\u9762\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u6458\u8981\uff08SPM\uff09\u662f\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0e\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e94\u5929\u591a\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u8fbe\u6210\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5df2\u5728\u4e0a\u6587\u63d0\u4f9b\u94fe\u63a5\u3002SPM\u6240\u4f9d\u636e\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u62a5\u544a\u5c06\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5468\u5185\u53d1\u5e03\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u5408\u6210\u62a5\u544a\u5173\u4e8e\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7ed3\u8bba\u5982\u4e0b\u3002\u4ece\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5408\u6210\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u5f88\u5927\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u57fa\u4e8e2019\u5e74\u53d1\u5e03\u7684SROCC\uff08\u4ec5\u5f15\u7528\u622a\u81f32018\u5e74\u7684\u6587\u732e\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca2021\u5e74\u53d1\u5e03\u7684AR6 WG1\u7269\u7406\u79d1\u5b66\u62a5\u544a\uff08\u5f15\u7528\u622a\u81f32021\u5e741\u6708\u7684\u6587\u732e\uff09\u3002\u5408\u6210\u62a5\u544a\u5e76\u672a\u5305\u542b\u90a3\u4e9b\u65e5\u671f\u4e4b\u540e\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u89c2\u6d4b\u4ecd\u5728\u6781\u5176\u8fc5\u901f\u5730\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6bcf\u5468\u4e00\u671f\u7684\u201c\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u80f6\u56ca\u201d\u5f97\u5230\u8bc1\u660e\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u5f15\u8a00\uff1a\u672c\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u91c7\u53d6\u7d27\u6025\u884c\u52a8\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u4ee3\u9645\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7efc\u5408\u62a5\u544a\u660e\u786e\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u6b63\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u9608\u503c\uff1a\u300a\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\u8bbe\u5b9a\u7684 1.5\u00b0C\/2\u00b0C \u7684\u201c\u5b89\u5168\u533a\u201d\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u672c\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u5b9e\u73b0\u201c\u6df1\u5ea6\u3001\u5feb\u901f\u4e14\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7acb\u5373\u201d\u51cf\u6392\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u4f7f\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u4fdd\u6301\u5728 1.5\u00b0C \u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u6216\u53ea\u6709\u6709\u9650\u7684\u8d85\u6807 (B.6.1)\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u7ef4\u6301 1.5\u00b0C \u7684\u5b89\u5168\u533a\u5e76\u907f\u514d\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u5bf9\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u5f71\u54cd\u9020\u6210\u7684\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u8f6c\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u635f\u5bb3\uff0c\u5230 2030 \u5e74\uff0c\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u5fc5\u987b\u51cf\u5c11\u8fd1 50% (B.6.2)\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u6700\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5bf9\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u6d88\u878d\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6027\u548c\u4ee3\u9645\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\u88ab\u53cd\u590d\u63d0\u53ca\u3002\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u5c71\u5730\u51b0\u5ddd\u3001\u6c38\u4e45\u51bb\u571f\u548c\u5317\u6781\u6d77\u51b0\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u793e\u533a\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u51b0\u96ea\u878d\u5316\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u7acb\u5373\u9762\u4e34\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u957f\u7684\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u6d88\u878d\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5371\u9669\uff1b\u800c\u683c\u9675\u5170\u548c\u5357\u6781\u51b0\u76d6\u7b49\u66f4\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u51b0\u51bb\u533a\u57df\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u5219\u9700\u8981\u6570\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u5c06\u5448\u6307\u6570\u7ea7\u589e\u957f\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u9274\u4e8e\u4e0b\u4e00\u4efd\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08IPCC\uff09\u62a5\u544a\u5c06\u57282030\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u53d1\u5e03\uff0c\u672c\u62a5\u544a\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u65f6\u523b\u3002\u5730\u7403\u7684\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u5bf9\u8d85\u8fc71.5\u00b0C\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u5347\u6e29\u90fd\u4f1a\u505a\u51fa\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6e29\u5ea6\u968f\u540e\u88ab\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u5185\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u5c06\u51b3\u5b9a\u6211\u4eec\u661f\u7403\u4e0a\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u7684\u5269\u4f59\u91cf\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u51b3\u5b9a\u5b50\u5b59\u540e\u4ee3\u7684\u672a\u6765\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u51b0\u5ddd\u9000\u7f29\u548c\u79ef\u96ea\u51cf\u5c11\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5371\u9669<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b21\u5347\u6e29\u90fd\u5c06\u6210\u500d\u589e\u52a0\u5e76\u52a0\u5267\u672a\u6765\u6765\u81ea\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u5730\u533a\u7684\u5371\u9669\u3002\u51b0\u5ddd\u9000\u7f29\u548c\u79ef\u96ea\u51cf\u5c11\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u6d2a\u6c34\u3001\u6ed1\u5761\u548c\u6de1\u6c34\u77ed\u7f3a\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u7684\u5c71\u533a\u6784\u6210\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u5a01\u80c1\uff08B.2.1\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6c14\u5019\u5371\u5bb3\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u793e\u533a\u548c\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u9020\u6210\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u8f6c\u7684\u635f\u5bb3\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6c14\u6e29\u8d85\u8fc71.5\u00b0C\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5371\u5bb3\u5c06\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u666e\u904d\u548c\u663e\u8457\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u8fd1\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4eba\u53e3\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u201c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u6613\u53d7\u201d\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6c14\u6e29\u7ee7\u7eed\u5347\u9ad8\uff0c\u6781\u7aef\u9ad8\u6e29\u548c\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u5c06\u589e\u52a0\u4eba\u7c7b\u5065\u5eb7\u98ce\u9669\uff08A.2.2\uff09\u3002\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u6613\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u5730\u533a\u56e0\u6d2a\u6c34\u3001\u5e72\u65f1\u548c\u98ce\u66b4\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u662f\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6709\u97e7\u6027\u5730\u533a\uff08A.2.2\uff09\u768415\u500d\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u6c14\u6e29\u5347\u9ad8\u8d85\u8fc71.5\u00b0C\uff0c\u6709\u9650\u7684\u6de1\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u5c06\u5bf9\u5c0f\u5c9b\u5c7f\u3001\u9ad8\u5c71\u5730\u533a\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f9d\u8d56\u51b0\u5ddd\u548c\u878d\u96ea\u7684\u4e0b\u6e38\u793e\u533a\u6784\u6210\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u9650\u5236\uff08B.4.2\uff09\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u5730\u533a\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u8f6c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u51b0\u5ddd\u9000\u7f29\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u9ad8\u5c71\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6c34\u6e90\u4f9b\u5e94\uff0c\u6c38\u4e45\u51bb\u571f\u878d\u5316\u5bfc\u81f4\u5317\u6781\u5730\u533a\u571f\u5730\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\uff08A.2.3\uff09\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u7ea6\u670935\u4ebf\u4eba\u53e3\u6bcf\u5e74\u81f3\u5c11\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\u95f4\u9762\u4e34\u4e25\u91cd\u7f3a\u6c34\uff08A.2.4\uff09\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u51b0\u5ddd\u9000\u7f29\u5bfc\u81f4\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u6de1\u6c34\u4f9b\u5e94\u51cf\u5c11\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e72\u65f1\u9891\u53d1\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u5b57\u5c06\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u548c\u6d77\u6d0b\u9178\u5316\u5a01\u80c1\u793e\u533a\u548c\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u968f\u7740\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53d8\u6696\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u5730\u533a\u90fd\u5c06\u7ecf\u5386\u66f4\u5f3a\u3001\u66f4\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u5929\u6c14\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u70ed\u6d6a\u548c\u5e72\u65f1\u5c06\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u9891\u7e41\uff0c\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u65cb\u548c\u98ce\u66b4\u5c06\u66f4\u52a0\u5f3a\u70c8\uff0c\u5e72\u65f1\u5730\u533a\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u53d1\u751f\u91ce\u706b\uff08B.1.4\uff09\u3002\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u964d\u6c34\u5c06\u52a0\u5267\u5c40\u90e8\u6d2a\u6c34\uff08B.2.1\uff09\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u6cbf\u6d77\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u6bcf\u4e16\u7eaa\u4ec5\u53d1\u751f\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e8b\u4ef6\u52302100\u5e74\u5c06\u6bcf\u5e74\u53d1\u751f\u4e00\u6b21\uff08B.1.4\uff09\u3002\u6c14\u6e29\u4e0a\u5347\u5bf9\u5f53\u5730\u4ea4\u901a\u3001\u6c34\u3001\u536b\u751f\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u7cfb\u7edf\u6784\u6210\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u52a0\uff1b\u4ece\u800c\u5371\u5bb3\u4eba\u7c7b\u5065\u5eb7\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u6709\u5bb3\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u8fb9\u7f18\u5316\u793e\u533a\uff08A.2.7\uff09\u3002.<\/p>\n

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\u5730\u7403\u7684\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u4f1a\u76f4\u63a5\u5bf9\u6e29\u5ea6\u5cf0\u503c\u548c\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u4f5c\u51fa\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u6682\u65f6\u8d85\u8fc7 1.5\u00b0C\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c06\u7531\u4e8e\u51b0\u5ddd\u878d\u5316\u548c\u51b0\u76d6\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u5347\uff08B.7.2\uff09\u800c\u5bf9\u6781\u5730\u3001\u5c71\u533a\u548c\u6cbf\u6d77\u793e\u533a\u4ea7\u751f\u201c\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u8f6c\u201d\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6e29\u5ea6\u5347\u9ad8\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u9ad8\u4e8e 1.5\u00b0C \u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8d8a\u957f\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5c31\u8d8a\u5927\uff1b\u5305\u62ec\u6de1\u6c34\u77ed\u7f3a\u548c\u7a81\u53d1\u6d2a\u6c34\u3001\u70ed\u6d6a\u548c\u5e72\u65f1\uff08B.7.2\uff09\u3002\u8d85\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6e29\u5ea6\u9608\u503c\u5c06\u589e\u52a0\u5bf9\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u7684\u635f\u5bb3\uff0c\u5a01\u80c1\u751f\u8ba1\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u519c\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\uff0c\u5e76\u8feb\u4f7f\u4f4e\u6d3c\u6cbf\u6d77\u5c45\u6c11\u533a\u8981\u4e48\u9002\u5e94\u8981\u4e48\u8fc1\u5f80\u5185\u9646\u3002.<\/p>\n

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\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u4e0a\u5347\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u8de8\u8d8a\u51b0\u51bb\u5708\u4e3b\u8981\u9608\u503c\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u5730\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7a81\u7136\u4e14\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\u8f6c\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9608\u503c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u7269\u79cd\u706d\u7edd\u6216\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u6c38\u4e45\u4e27\u5931\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u6d77\u6d0b\u548c\u5317\u6781\u5730\u533a\uff08B.3.2\uff09\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u5373\u4f7f\u4ee5\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6df1\u6d77\u53d8\u6696\u548c\u51b0\u76d6\u878d\u5316\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u4ecd\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u6570\u767e\u5e74\u81f3\u6570\u5343\u5e74\u7684\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u5c06\u5728\u6570\u5343\u5e74\u5185\u4fdd\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff08B.3.1\uff09\u3002\u52302100\u5e74\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u6cbf\u6d77\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u3001\u4eba\u7c7b\u548c\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\uff08B.2.2\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4f4e\u6392\u653e\u548c\u8d85\u4f4e\u6392\u653e\u8def\u5f84\u5c06\u51cf\u7f13\u51b0\u5c42\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u635f\u5931\u7684\u52a0\u901f\uff0c\u5e76\u9650\u5236\u6211\u4eec\u672a\u6765\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u3002.<\/p>\n

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\u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Link to the Summary for Policy Makers: https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/syr\/ The IPCC on March 20, 2023 approved the final installment of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the “Synthesis Report,” bringing together the world\u2019s leading scientists to create a comprehensive assessment of current climate change. The Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) is the result of over five days […]\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"no","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[152],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4544","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cryosphere-capsules"],"modified_by":"Pam Pearson","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4544","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4544"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4544\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4589,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4544\/revisions\/4589"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4544"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4544"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4544"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}