Environmental Research Letters, 2 May 2023<\/p>\n
This study summarizes the long-term risks and consequences associated with overshooting the 1.5\u00b0C limit of the Paris Agreement, focusing on the global impacts of rising temperatures on ice sheets, permafrost, wildfires, heatwaves, ocean acidification and more. One of their key findings: even temporarily exceeding 1.5\u00b0C will result in 10% higher global sea level rise by 2100, and this would continue increasing for centuries. Only the very low emissions scenario avoids a multi-century acceleration of sea-level rise from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Even seemingly small changes to sea level rise can make a substantial difference, especially in terms of economic damage to infrastructure in vulnerable coastal and low-lying regions.<\/p>\n
The study also makes clear that the impacts of overshoot are not equal in geographic, economic or intergenerational terms. Heatwave exposure is already higher in lower-middle income countries than in high-income countries. In addition, researchers found that today\u2019s newborns will experience up to 25% more heatwaves across their lifetime if temperatures overshoot by 0.35\u00b0C before returning to 1.5\u00b0C; this is more than six times higher than the amount of heatwaves experienced by those who are aged 60 today. The study underscores that these far-reaching impacts of cryosphere loss will have cascading effects on health, infrastructure, agriculture, education and a wide range of other socioeconomic variables; the best way to reduce these impacts is to urgently reduce emissions and avoid overshoot.<\/p>\n