Nature Communications, 1 August 2024<\/p>\n
Current climate policies are not ambitious enough to prevent tipping points from being crossed, even if long-term temperatures return to 1.5\u00b0C by 2300, new analysis shows. The authors investigated the risk of tipping where warming temporarily overshoots 1.5\u00b0C, but global temperatures are then brought back down using negative emissions technologies. They found that the longer the 1.5\u00b0C threshold is breached, and the higher the peak temperature; the greater the risk of crossing tipping points for the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the Amazon rainforest. Scenarios following pledged NDCs under the UNFCCC in 2020 until 2100 would lead to a 10\u201390% chance of tipping points being crossed (median estimate: 30%), even when subsequently designed such that temperatures return to 1.5\u00b0C after overshoot. Tipping risk was found to increase with every 0.1\u00b0C of overshoot peak temperature, and risk accelerates non-linearly for peak overshoot temperatures above 2\u00b0C. This research underscores the importance of the Paris Agreement climate objective to hold warming to \u2018well below 2\u00b0C\u2019, with as little and as brief overshoot of even 1.5\u00b0C as possible.<\/p>\n
\u5168\u6587 https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-49863-0<\/a> Nature Communications, 1 August 2024 Current climate policies are not ambitious enough to prevent tipping points from being crossed, even if long-term temperatures return to 1.5\u00b0C by 2300, new analysis shows. The authors investigated the risk of tipping where warming temporarily overshoots 1.5\u00b0C, but global temperatures are then brought back down using negative emissions technologies. […]\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[152],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5817","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cryosphere-capsules"],"modified_by":"Pam Pearson","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5817","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5817"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5817\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5819,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5817\/revisions\/5819"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5817"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5817"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iccinet.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5817"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nNews Briefing: https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/every-0-1c-of-overshoot-above-1-5c-increases-risk-of-crossing-tipping-points\/<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"