NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science, 20 May 2026<\/p>\n
Human-caused warming has been the primary driver of winter Arctic sea-ice loss since 1980, accounting for most of the observed decline across large parts of the Arctic. Using climate observations from 1950-2024, researchers developed a new approach to distinguish the effects of anthropogenic climate change from those of natural climate variability on winter sea ice. Unlike summer sea ice, which has long exhibited a clear response to rising temperatures, winter sea ice has traditionally been considered more strongly influenced by natural variability. The study found that while natural climate patterns \u2013 particularly in the North Atlantic and parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific \u2013 affect winter sea ice conditions, their influence is secondary to that of human-caused warming. The researchers also identified that Arctic sea ice carries far-reaching effects on global climate and weather patterns, with linkages between winter sea ice loss and warmer summer temperatures across much of Europe.<\/p>\n