1.9 Billion People Vulnerable to Once-a-Century Extreme Floods by 2100

Nature Communications, 3 February 2025

An analysis of climate change alongside population growth finds that a greater number of people than previously estimated will live on the frontlines of extreme flooding in coming decades, with an additional 300,000 people in high-risk flood areas by the end of the century. High-resolution models also reveal that lower-income households globally are disproportionately exposed. By 2100 the lowest GDP areas will account for two-thirds of all people at risk from 1-in-100-year flood events, both overall and in urban areas. In terms of financial impacts, damage from storms and floods have steadily increased over recent decades, costing the global economy over 140 billion USD in 2017 alone, and 100 billion USD annually almost every year since then. The study highlights the importance of further improving resolution and availability of predictive models used in flood management, as well as the role of equitable resource distribution to address adaptation needs.

Full paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56654-8