Arctic’s “Last Ice Area” Could Disappear Much Sooner Than Earlier Projected

Communications Earth and Environment, 23 January 2025

The Arctic’s “Last Ice Area” (LIA) – the area north of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago long seen as the region where year-round sea ice would survive the longest, providing a potential refuge for ice-dependent species – could disappear less than a decade after the central Arctic Ocean becomes continuously ice-free. This earlier disappearance could have severe consequences for Arctic ecosystems, as well as global ocean current and climate patterns. Latest research indicates that the Arctic Ocean could become seasonally ice-free as early as 2035, which could open the trap door to very rapid ice loss from the LIA. Ice-free conditions in the Central Arctic Ocean could allow huge amounts of ice from the LIA to flow unhindered through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and southwards, to rapidly melt in warmer waters. In this scenario, the LIA could vanish in 6 to 24 years after continuous Central Arctic Ocean ice-free conditions occur, much faster than previously estimated. The LIA provides a vital habitat for polar bears, seals, and ice-dependent Arctic keystone species that rely on a thicker multi-year ice, and simultaneously plays a critical role in global ocean currents, weather patterns, and climate stability.

Full paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02034-5
News coverage by McGill University: https://www.mcgill.ca/newsroom/channels/news/last-ice-area-arctic-could-disappear-much-sooner-previously-thought-362937