Greater Snow Drought Increasing the Vulnerability of Winter Wheat Yields

Nature Food, 6 February 2026

Winter wheat regions across the Northern Hemisphere have experienced a steady rise in snow drought, with frequency increasing around 5-6% per decade from 1960 to 2020. In addition, crop yield sensitivity to snowpack water levels has significantly increased across more than 25% of winter wheat croplands. These snow droughts reduce yields by increasing freeze stress, lowering soil moisture during key growth stages, worsening the effects of hotter and drier conditions, and limiting nitrogen replenishment in soils. Snow droughts are projected to become increasingly frequent as winters warm, posing escalating risks to winter wheat productivity and challenging regional food security, in particular if these difficulties hit other major crops as well.

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