Global ice loss dangerously expanding, scientists say, yet growing damage from melting glaciers and ice sheets can still be prevented – barely.
Current unambitious climate commitments, leading the world to well over 2°C of warming, spell disaster for billions of people from global ice loss, but that damage can still be prevented, according to an assessment released today.
Latest research detailed in the 2025 State of the Cryosphere Report notes thresholds likely at just 1°C of warming for the stability of polar ice sheets, and even lower temperatures for many glaciers. The Report notes that the most proactive climate pathways can bring temperatures down below 1.5°C by 2100 and below 1°C mark next century – but only if reductions begin immediately. Currently, emissions are still climbing not just cryosphere (ice and snow) melt but ocean acidification that has reached dangerous levels in polar waters, say the scientists.
Coordinated by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI), over 50 leading cryosphere scientists detail accelerating melt from the cryosphere since signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015. The Report warns that costs of loss and damage due to continued high emissions – leading towards 3°C – will be even more extreme, with many regions experiencing sea-level rise or water resource loss well beyond adaptation limits in coming decades or even today, as the tragic damage on Jamaica showed in late October.
The Report also notes a growing scientific consensus that freshwater pouring off the melting Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, together with warmer waters, seem to be slowing important ocean currents at both poles, which would wreak havoc on ocean ecosystems and bring much colder temperatures to northern Europe.
Media Event in Belém and Online: A press event on the report’s release will be held at COP30 (Blue Zone) in Belém on Thursday, Nov. 13 at 18:30 BRT in the Cryosphere Pavilion, and livestreamed at www.youtube.com/@iccinet
Emissions reductions even more urgent than we thought, scientists tell UN negotiators during first week of Bonn climate meetings.
BONN, GERMANY: Major tipping points for Earth’s ice sheets and mountain glaciers can occur at temperatures well below 1.5°C, say scientists briefing UN climate negotiators here on Tuesday. Lead authors of parallel keystone papers – one on ice sheets, the second on glaciers – urge governments to adopt far more ambitious climate commitments by COP30 to prevent the worst impacts.
“Historical records show that even current warming levels at 1.2°C, if sustained, will likely lead to several meters of sea-level rise over coming centuries,” says Dr. Chris Stokes, who led several IPCC scientists evaluating current evidence on polar ice sheets. “This will result in extensive loss and damage to coastlines, making adaptation not just challenging, but impossible.”
Earth’s glaciers face an equally dire fate, with four regions – the European Alps, Rockies of the Western U.S. and Canada, Iceland, and Scandinavia – committed to losing at least half their ice at or below sustained 1°C. These same regions lose nearly all ice at 2°C. Dr. Harry Zekollari, who co-led an author team of more than 20 glacier scientists, notes that only 24% of present-day glacier mass will remain if the world warms to 2.7°C, the trajectory set by current climate policies. In contrast, limiting warming to 1.5°C would preserve 54% of global glacier ice, with 10-25% in even the most sensitive regions.
“Staying close to 1.5°C preserves at least some glacier ice nearly everywhere, with 40-45% in the Himalayas and Caucuses, stressing the growing urgency of the 1.5°C temperature goal and rapid decarbonization to achieve it,” says Zekollari.
Press Conference Download Media Advisory Ice Sheets Paper Summary Glaciers Paper SummaryThis press release covers a landmark study on glacier extinction, released on May 29, the eve of the UN Glacier Conference in Tajikistan:
The study published in Science finds that glaciers are even more sensitive to global warming than previously estimated; with only 24% of present-day glacier mass remaining if the world warms to 2.7°C, the trajectory set by current climate policies. In contrast, limiting warming to 1.5°C would preserve 54% of glacier mass.
These figures however are global, skewed mostly by the very large glaciers around Antarctica and Greenland. The glacier regions most important to human communities are even more sensitive, with several losing nearly all glacier ice already at 2°C. This includes the glaciers of the European Alps, the Rockies of the Western U.S. and Canada, and Iceland, with only 10-15% of their 2020 ice levels remaining at 2°C sustained warming. Most hard-hit would be Scandinavia, with no glacier ice remaining at 2°C at all.
All four of these regions are committed to losing at least half their ice already at or below 1°C; starkly mirroring a paper released last week setting the safe margin for Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets at or below that same 1°C level. Even the Hindu Kush Himalaya, where glaciers feed river basins supporting 2 billion people, show only 25% of 2020 ice remaining at 2°C. Staying close to 1.5°C on the other hand preserves at least some glacier ice in all regions, even Scandinavia, with 20-30% remaining in the four most sensitive regions; and 40-45% in the Himalayas and Caucuses; stressing the growing urgency of the 1.5°C temperature goal and rapid decarbonization to achieve it.
The full press release is available below, including links to additional materials including newly-produced glacier animations showing loss to 2100 in several key glaciers.
Additional information:
• “Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C” (Science): https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adu4675
• High-Level International Conference on Glaciers’ Preservation (May 29-31, Dushanbe): https://dushanbeicgp2025.com/
• “Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets” (Communications Earth & Environment): https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02299-w
Daily average atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels have exceeded 430 ppm for the first time since records began, and likely for the first time in at least 3 million years, raising a red flag that today’s fossil fuel emissions are pushing the climate into greater and more deadly extremes.
Within the past week, the Mauna Loa Observatory has twice recorded daily average CO2 levels above 430 ppm, reaching a new record of 430.60 ppm on March 7, and 430.19 ppm on March 10. This monitoring station maintains the world’s longest record of measurements of atmospheric CO2, charting the accumulation of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere from 1958 to present.
“This upward trajectory is a direct result of continued fossil fuel use, likely exacerbated by emissions from extreme wildfires last year, methane leaks from fossil fuel extraction and possibly greater permafrost emissions, alongside decreased ability of very warm oceans to absorb CO2,” said Dr. James Kirkham, Chief Scientist of the Ambition on Melting Ice coalition of governments. “While largely symbolic, passing 430 ppm should be a wake-up call, especially given the accelerated response we are seeing of glaciers and ice sheets to current warming.”
Available for additional quotes:
• Dr. Sian Henley, Reader in Marine Science and Deputy Head of Global Change Research Institute, University of Edinburgh: s.f.henley@ed.ac.uk | +44-7818-082630
• Dr. Twila Moon, Deputy Lead Scientist, National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) | twila.moon@colorado.edu
• Dr. Joeri Rogelj, Director of Research at the Grantham Institute, Professor of Climate Science and Policy, Imperial College London, IPCC lead author | j.rogelj@imperial.ac.uk
• Dr. James Kirkham, Chief Science Advisor, Ambition on Melting Ice (AMI) High-level Group: james@iccinet.org | +44-7581-560936
Media Event | November 22nd, 2024, 13:00 (GMT+4) | Cryosphere Pavilion, Area E, A8 of the Blue Zone at COP29
On the last day of a deadlocked COP29, a group of leading polar and glacier research organizations issued an Open Letter urging immediate and substantial action to address the escalating climate crisis due to the risk of triggering irreversible global impacts from polar ice melt.
The Open Letter has been endorsed by, among others the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), the European Polar Board (EPB), and the International Glaciological Society (IGS). Taken at the initiative of several polar research programs alarmed at the lack of inaction in the face of growing observations of polar ice loss, the letter underscores the urgent need to uphold the +1.5°C global warming threshold set by the 2015 UN Paris Agreement.
“The changes in the cryosphere are not isolated events,” the letter emphasizes. “They cascade into widespread and severe impacts on climate stability, ecosystems, livelihoods, economies, and the safety of societies worldwide.” The research bodies stress that exceeding the +1.5°C threshold risks triggering climate tipping points, with devastating consequences for current and future generations. They call on world leaders to meet their commitments under the 2015 UN Paris Agreement and implement robust policies and measures to keep the +1.5°C limit achievable.
Download Press Release Open the full Open Letter Watch LIvestreamPress Conference | Nov 20th, 2024, 18-18:30 AZT | Room Karabakh, COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan
As the climate negotiations enter their end phase, members of the Ambition on Melting Ice High-level Group (AMI) on Sea-level Rise and Mountain Water Resources called on all countries to make greater progress at COP29, given sharpening risks of irreversible impacts from cryosphere loss.
The statement from AMI ministers said that the latest cryosphere science underscores the need for transformative climate action by 2030 to avert “destabilization, disruption and displacement at global scales” – all because of growing loss of the planet’s vital ice stores. “Latest science points to feedbacks from polar and mountain regions from our current emissions trajectory that will have extreme and irreversible economic, social and environmental consequences throughout the planet,” said the joint statement, descrying the lack of progress.
“As a scientist, these impacts terrify me, said Dr. James Kirkham, AMI Chief Scientist. “But what terrifies me more is that the pace of global action to address these threats remains light-years away from what the science unanimously says we must do to minimize the global damage that continues to grow hour by hour.
Download Press Release View the Ministerial Statement Watch LivestreamPress Conference | June 6th, 2024, 2:30-3pm CEST | Room Nairobi 4, World Conference Center (WCC), Bonn, Germany
Scientific experts and representatives from countries in mountain, downstream and low-lying regions will hold a press conference today following United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’s Special Address yesterday.
Speaking at the Bonn Climate Change Conference, international experts will describe the effects of what Guterres called “the climate road to hell” for people living in mountain and low-lying regions. These countries are on the frontline of the climate crisis and are already suffering severe impacts even before 1.5°C of warming. The participants will explain why 1.5°C is an essential limit, not merely “ambitious”, and how each fraction of a degree counts with growing and irreversible damage from snow and ice regions ongoing today.
All participants will be available for interview after the press conference in Bonn or virtually.
If you have any media questions or would like to set up an interview, please contact:
Irene Quaile, ICCI: irene@iccinet.org | +49 177 8412930
Amy Imdieke, ICCI: amy@iccinet.org | +1 507 321 3255
Annie Dare, ICIMOD: Annie.Dare@icimod.org | +44 7791 110 089
James Whiteman, Blakeney: icimod@theblakeneygroup.com | +44 557 106 201
December 12th, 2023 | COP28 Blue Zone, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Alarmed at the lack of urgency the past two weeks in Dubai, over 1000 cryosphere scientists have called on leaders at COP28 to heed signals from what they call ground zero for climate change: the Earth’s cryosphere, or snow and ice regions. Calling the continued rise in CO2 from fossil fuels “insanity,” the scientists – many of them IPCC authors – urged the inclusion of “ice” factors explicitly in the Global Stocktake language. “Yesterday’s text refers to cryosphere just once, as one of many “ecosystems,” said Dr. Regine Hock, who coordinated the Mountains chapter of the IPCC’s 2019 Special Report on Oceans and the Cryosphere (SROCC). “But preserving ice sheets and glaciers by cutting fossil fuel emissions holds the key to continued existence for human communities worldwide.”
“Leaders need to understand that what happens in the cryosphere does not stay there: the impacts are global and mostly irreversible,“ said Dr. Florence Colleoni, who leads dozens of Antarctic ice scientists with the international Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research (SCAR). “And it’s all about how much CO2 we pump into the atmosphere from fossil fuels.”
To schedule an interview with one of the leading scientists involved in the Call (and those currently in Dubai attending COP), see the press release and list of contacts linked below.
If you have any media questions, please contact:
Regine Hock, University of Olso (IPCC, Glaciers, Snow)
Contact: regine.hock@geo.uio.no, +47 41323826
Martin Sommerkorn, Head of Conservation for the WWF Arctic Programme (IPCC, Polar Regions)
Contact: +47 92606995
Pam Pearson, ICCI Director
Contact: pam@iccinet.org, +46 705752257
Dr. Florence Colleoni, SCAR (Ice Sheets, SLR)
Email: fcolleoni@ogs.it, +39 340 240 8644
Dr. James Kirkham, AMI Chief Science Advisor and Coordinator, ICCI
Email: james@iccinet.org,+44 7581 560936
Amy Imdieke, ICCI Global Outreach Director
Contact: amy@iccinet.org, +1 5073213255
Scientists and Youth Demonstration at COP28 | December 9th, 2023, 10-10:30am | Located in front of Global Climate Action Area (Zone B7, between Buildings 92 and 93)
As negotiators continue to wrangle over a phase-out of fossil fuels at COP28 in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates, leading scientists, global youth and negotiators from low-lying nations will highlight the potentially disastrous implications of climate-change-induced sea level rise for the host city.
A line of COP delegates will form a chain of yellow “hazard” tape along what would be the redefined Dubai coastline – which would cut straight through the middle of the COP28 venue — if fossil fuel emissions continue at their present rate. The demonstration is based on a possible 10 meters of sea level rise by 2300 if we continue on today’s path. “That figure is from Antarctica alone,” says Dr. Florence Colleoni, a leading Antarctic researcher with the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). “This is actually a conservative estimate. In fact if Greenland and other factors were added, 15 meters by 2300 cannot be ruled out, according to the IPCC.”
The press release includes contacts details for interviews and further information:
Download Press Release Dubai - Sea Level Rise MapsIf you have any media questions, please contact:
Irene Quaile, Senior Media Advisor, International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI)
Email: irene@iccinet.org,+49 177 8412930
Dr. James Kirkham, Ambition on Melting Ice Chief Science Advisor and Coordinator, ICCI
Email: james@iccinet.org,+44 7581 560936
Dr. Florence Colleoni, Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research
Email: fcolleoni@ogs.it, +39 340 240 8644
Pam Pearson, Director, International Cryosphere Climate Initative
Email: pam@iccinet.org, +46-705752257
High-level Event: Friday, September 22, 15:00-16:30 | | 46 E 70th Street, New York, The Explorers Club
Representatives of a broad coalition of concerned governments, Ambition on Melting Ice (AMI), backed by top international scientists, will deliver an urgent warning about the global impacts of ice and snow melt as the UN Secretary-General convenes a milestone Climate Ambition Summit at United Nations Headquarters on 20 September 2023.
“Without urgent and immediate emissions reductions consistent with the lower Paris Agreement limit of 1.5°C, the damage from ice loss will result in scales of destruction well beyond the limits of feasible adaptation. It will leave no nation untouched”, says Carlos Fuller, a seasoned climate negotiator and Permanent Representative to the United Nations of low-lying nation Belize. This is the message being brought to New York by the member nations of the Ambition on Melting Ice (AMI) High-level Group on Sea-level Rise and Mountain Water
Resources.
The press release includes contacts details for interviews, access to the Event, and further information:
Download Press Release Program Watch LivestreamIf you have any media questions, please contact:
Aegir Thor Eysteinsson, Press Officer, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Iceland, (AMI Co-Chair)
Email: aegir.eysteinsson@utn.is, +354 892 9197
Gonzalo Perucca, Head of Communications, Ministry of the Environment of Chile, (AMI Co-Chair)
Email: gperucca©mma.gob.cl
Amy Imdieke, Global Outreach Director, AMI Secretariat / ICCI
Email: amy@iccinet.org, +1 (507) 321-3255
Irene Quaile, Press and Media, AMI Secretariat / ICCI
Email: irene@iccinet.org, +49 (0) 177 841
Thursday June 8, 11:45-13:00 CEST | Room Kaminzimmer, World Conference Center (WCC), Bonn, Germany
As countries gather in Bonn, Germany to finalize the first evaluation of Paris climate agreement pledges – known as the Global Stocktake – scientists have joined an unusual new grouping of countries urging “2°C is too high” based on the most recent science of the world’s ice.
The 20-nation Ambition on Melting Ice (AMI) group, formed at COP27, includes not just polar and mountain regions (Iceland and Chile co-chair), but Liberia, Vanuatu and Senegal – all highly vulnerable to sea-level rise from melting glaciers and ice sheets. Together with leading scientists, these countries point to fresh research on global impacts from the world’s ice sheets, glaciers, and permafrost. It indicates the original Paris Agreement goal of 2°C is unacceptable. Even the lower 1.5°C limit could be too high. Speakers include negotiators from Chile, Iceland, Belize, Sweden, Bhutan, as well as ICIMOD and ICCI. See full program below.
UNFCCC Press Conference: Wednesday June 7, 12-12:30CEST | Nairobi Room 04, WCC, Bonn, Germany. Press Conference Speakers: Izabella Koziell, Deputy Director, ICIMOD; and Dr. James Kirkham, Antarctic Scientist, Ambition on Melting Ice (AMI). Livestream can be accessed at the following link.
Download Press Release Press Conference Livestream Program Side Event LivestreamIf you have any media questions, please contact Irene Quaile (in Bonn), irene@iccinet.org, +49 177 841 2930; Johanna Grabow, johanna@scar.org (in UK); Annie Dare, Annie.Dare@icimod.org (in Kathmandu).
On the evening of June 1st, the Ambition on Melting Ice (AMI) High-level Group on Sea-Level Rise and Mountain Water Resources will be inviting delegates and interested parties to an evening reception where leading scientists and representatives of concerned countries will present the latest information on the global consequences of Antarctic ice loss and the related key issue of the acidification of the Southern Ocean, with major consequences for fisheries and food security.
Download Press ReleasePlease contact lydie@iccinet.org or amy@iccinet.org with any inquires or questions.