New Destabilizing Arctic Under High Emissions Scenario

Nature Climate Change, September 14

The Arctic is at high risk of undergoing a rapid state change away from a cryosphere-dominated system, leading researchers to call on governments urgently to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid losing the its stabilizing role on the global climate system.  Under current high emissions scenarios, using the new CMIP5 models developed for IPCC AR6, the Arctic Ocean would be sea ice-free at least three to four months every year; average temperatures increase by 5-12°C on land and 12-28°C over the Arctic Ocean; and the rainy season extended by two to four months, accelerating ice loss further. The authors note that the Arctic already is transitioning away from a cryosphere-dominated system.  This is causing substantial impacts not only on local Arctic communities and ecosystems, but on the entire planet through global feedbacks such as disturbed weather systems, sea-level rise and albedo loss.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0892-z

Compiled by Amy Imdieke