Rapid Glacier Loss Threatens Water Supplies in Tien Shan Mountains

Water Resources Research, 9 February 2026

Glaciers in the Tien Shan mountains of Asia are projected to rapidly shrink this century, with one-third of their 2020 ice volume expected to disappear before 2040 and two-thirds by 2100 even under low emissions. Nearly all (93%) ice will however be lost this century if today’s very high emissions continue. Runoff from glacier areas is projected to rise by nearly one-fourth compared to recent decades, peaking before 2050, then declining rapidly by end of century. This decrease is most concerning in summer, when glaciers currently provide up to 45% of total mountain water runoff and water demand is highest. By late century, summer glacier runoff is projected to decrease by as much as 55% in August, weakening as runoff shifts earlier into spring. As a result, the probability that summer water demand cannot be met increases substantially, especially in heavily glaciated basins, where unmet demand rises 30-70% by 2100 depending on the emissions scenario. Such high glacier loss will significantly reduce reliable summer water supplies in the Tien Shan as snowpack and ice thin before completely disappearing.

Paper