Categories: Cryosphere Capsules

Today’s Emissions Choices Will Shape Greenland Ice Loss for Centuries

The Cryosphere, 8 December 2025

Present-day human choices on emissions pathways will have long-lasting consequences for melt and sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet. By 2100, Greenland is projected to contribute between 16-76 mm of sea-level rise under low emissions, 22-163 mm under moderate emissions, and 27-354 mm under high emissions. When projections are extended to 2300, sea-level contributions range from 49 mm to more than 3 meters, with the largest increases occurring under prolonged high fossil fuel emissions. In contrast, scenarios that limit or stabilize warming at temperatures close to the lower 1.5C Paris Agreement limit lead to much lower sea-level contributions from Greenland, and a potentially slowing or stabilizing ice sheet. This emphasizes the importance of decisions today for Greenland’s melt rate, and for coastal populations over coming decades and centuries.

Paper

Pam Pearson

Recent Posts

Without Emissions Cuts, A Real Risk of Extreme Sea-level Rise by 2100

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 23 April 2026 Observations suggest we are currently tracking…

2 days ago

Increasing Avalanche Risk from Himalayan Hanging Glaciers

NPJ Natural Hazards, 16 April 2026) Rising temperatures and shifting regional precipitation patterns are reducing…

2 days ago

Heavier Rainfall, Glacier Melt Increase Flooding Across the Tibetan Plateau

Nature Communications, 18 March 2026 This study identified a marked increase in both flood frequency…

2 days ago

Intense Ocean Warming, Even If Temporary, Could Trigger Major Antarctic Ice Loss

The Cryosphere, 7 April 2026 Projections of Antarctica’s response to temporary but extreme ocean warming…

2 days ago

Antarctic Sea Ice Decline Linked to Extreme Weather and Climate Patterns

The Cryosphere, 1 April 2026 Antarctic sea ice stayed fairly steady from 2010-2014, but began…

2 days ago

COP30 Video of the Week: Emerging Evidence of Abrupt Changes in the Antarctic Environment

Changes in Antarctica can trigger fast and cascading impacts, often with global consequences. Multiple abrupt…

2 days ago