Today’s Emissions Choices Will Shape Greenland Ice Loss for Centuries

The Cryosphere, 8 December 2025

Present-day human choices on emissions pathways will have long-lasting consequences for melt and sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet. By 2100, Greenland is projected to contribute between 16-76 mm of sea-level rise under low emissions, 22-163 mm under moderate emissions, and 27-354 mm under high emissions. When projections are extended to 2300, sea-level contributions range from 49 mm to more than 3 meters, with the largest increases occurring under prolonged high fossil fuel emissions. In contrast, scenarios that limit or stabilize warming at temperatures close to the lower 1.5C Paris Agreement limit lead to much lower sea-level contributions from Greenland, and a potentially slowing or stabilizing ice sheet. This emphasizes the importance of decisions today for Greenland’s melt rate, and for coastal populations over coming decades and centuries.

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