Fragmentation of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf Likely Within the Next Decade

The Cryosphere, 27 June 2022

The Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf is the only floating extension of Thwaites Glacier that remains “pinned” to the underlying seabed, slowing the flow of the glacier into the ocean. Pressure generated by upstream ice against this “pinning point” previously served as a crucial source of support for the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, but this same mechanism now appears to be hastening its destruction. In most circumstances, pinning points – regions where the ice connects to solid ground – are essential for ice shelf stability. They regulate the flow and thickness of the ice, preventing it from sliding into the ocean. Over the past five years however, deep cracks have formed across the main body of the Eastern Ice Shelf, with many icebergs breaking away. Damage to ice upstream from the pinning point is now generating overwhelming pressure to dislodge the ice shelf from its current anchored position on the ground, making it increasingly vulnerable to major fracturing and accelerated retreat. If current rates of surface melt persist, the Eastern Ice Shelf may unpin from the seafloor in less than a decade. This would trigger major fragmentation and collapse of the ice shelf, destabilizing — likely irreversibly — the massive Thwaites Glacier, which drains an area the size of France and holds nearly a meter of sea-level rise.

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/2545/2022