Growing Andean Glacier Loss Increases Likelihood of Future Water Scarcity

The Cryosphere, 22 May 2024

Glacier volume has decreased by 8% across the Andes since 2010, with snow and ice melt producing up to 40% more runoff in the tropical and dry regions fed by the Central Andes compared to the prior decade. This study incorporates local climate data from diverse regions to more accurately forecast future glacier health and map water supplies. Glaciers feeding into more than six hundred catchments spread across the Andes are now melting one-eighth faster than they did at the turn of the century. These models closely align with local observations, establishing a more robust tool for forecasting future glacier runoff patterns in the Andes. This increased runoff from higher glacier and snow melt is a temporary phenomenon: as glaciers shrink and some disappear entirely, runoff will begin to decrease sharply. Many regions of South America will face increasing risks of water scarcity, particularly during the dry season, in coming decades if glacier loss continues at its current pace.

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/2487/2024/