High Emissions Jeopardize Critical Ocean Current Blocking Warm Water from Antarctica

American Geophysical Union, 21 May 2025

The Antarctic Slope Current (ASC), a major ocean current surrounding Antarctica, serves as a natural barrier by separating warm waters from Antarctic ice shelves. Researchers found that rising temperatures, increasing meltwater runoff, and shifting wind patterns will dramatically strengthen this current in coming decades if carbon emissions continue at today’s levels – with worrying consequences. This strengthening is not linear, and models predict a nearly 50% increase in the ASC’s intensity between 2025 and 2050 under a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). While a stronger ASC might seem beneficial without considering any other factors, any instability in this system will allow eddies of warm ocean water to rapidly erode ice shelves, increasing Antarctic ice loss and global sea-level rise.

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