Heat Waves in Permafrost Regions: More Frequent and Intense in a Warming Climate

NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science, 17 April 2025

An analysis of heatwaves in Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions finds that these extreme events will rapidly grow stronger and last longer after 2050 under high and very high emissions (SSP3-7.0 and 5-8.5), with dangerous implications for greater permafrost carbon emissions, as well as infrastructure stability. Low and medium emissions (SSP1-2.6 and 2-4.5) would prevent this distinct mid-century spike in heatwave growth, and potentially enable a downturn in intensity if global temperatures remain low enough. Heatwaves can thaw frozen soils very quickly; this can lead to abrupt thaw events including ground collapse, detachment slides, slumps and rockfalls which further degrade deep permafrost. Future warming is expected to amplify these trends, with the Tibetan Plateau facing more intense summer heatwaves and the Arctic enduring higher temperatures in winter through 2100. Understanding and anticipating these trends is crucial for effective adaptation strategies, but only sharp reductions in fossil fuel emissions can limit permafrost carbon emissions as CO2 and the rapidly-warming methane (CH4).

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